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Probabilistic Wildfire Susceptibility from Remote Sensing Using Random Forests and SHAP

Cheerala, Udaya Bhasker, Chirukuri, Varun Teja, Gummadi, Venkata Akhil Kumar, Bhuyan, Jintu Moni, Damacharla, Praveen

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Wildfires pose a significant global threat to ecosystems worldwide, with California experiencing recurring fires due to various factors, including climate, topographical features, vegetation patterns, and human activities. This study aims to develop a comprehensive wildfire risk map for California by applying the random forest (RF) algorithm, augmented with Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) through Shapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP), to interpret model predictions. Model performance was assessed using both spatial and temporal validation strategies. The RF model demonstrated strong predictive performance, achieving near-perfect discrimination for grasslands (AUC = 0.996) and forests (AUC = 0.997). Spatial cross-validation revealed moderate transferability, yielding ROC-AUC values of 0.6155 for forests and 0.5416 for grasslands. In contrast, temporal split validation showed enhanced generalization, especially for forests (ROC-AUC = 0.6615, PR-AUC = 0.8423). SHAP-based XAI analysis identified key ecosystem-specific drivers: soil organic carbon, tree cover, and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) emerged as the most influential in forests, whereas Land Surface Temperature (LST), elevation, and vegetation health indices were dominant in grasslands. District-level classification revealed that Central Valley and Northern Buttes districts had the highest concentration of high-risk grasslands, while Northern Buttes and North Coast Redwoods dominated forested high-risk areas. This RF-SHAP framework offers a robust, comprehensible, and adaptable method for assessing wildfire risks, enabling informed decisions and creating targeted strategies to mitigate dangers.


Temporal Fusion Transformer for Multi-Horizon Probabilistic Forecasting of Weekly Retail Sales

Punati, Santhi Bharath, Kanta, Sandeep, Cheerala, Udaya Bhasker, Lanjewar, Madhusudan G, Damacharla, Praveen

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

-- Accurate multi - horizon retail forecasts are critical for inventory and promotions. We present a novel study of weekly Walmart sales (45 stores, 2010 - 2012) using a Temporal Fusion Transformer (TFT) that fuses static store identifiers with time - varying exoge nous signals (holidays, CPI, fuel price, temperature). The pipeline produces 1 - 5 - week - ahead probabilistic forecasts via QuantileLoss, yielding calibrated 90% prediction intervals and interpretability through variable - selection networks, static enr ichment, and temporal attention. On a fixed 2012 hold - out dataset, TFT achieves an RMSE of $ 57.9k USD per store - week and an R of 0.9875. Across 5 - fold chronological cross - validation, the averages are RMSE = $ 64.6k USD and R = 0.9844, outperforming XGB, CNN, LSTM, and CNN - LSTM baseline models .


FTT-GRU: A Hybrid Fast Temporal Transformer with GRU for Remaining Useful Life Prediction

Chirukiri, Varun Teja, Cheerala, Udaya Bhasker, Kanta, Sandeep, Karim, Abdul, Damacharla, Praveen

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Accurate prediction of the remaining useful life (RUL) of industrial machinery is essential for reducing downtime and optimizing maintenance schedules. Existing approaches, such as long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and convolutional neural networks (CNNs), often struggle to model both global temporal dependencies and fine-grained degradation trends in multivariate sensor data. We propose a hybrid model, FTT-GRU, which combines a Fast Temporal Transformer (FTT) -- a lightweight Transformer variant using linearized attention via fast Fourier transform (FFT) -- with a gated recurrent unit (GRU) layer for sequential modeling. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first application of an FTT with a GRU for RUL prediction on NASA CMAPSS, enabling simultaneous capture of global and local degradation patterns in a compact architecture. On CMAPSS FD001, FTT-GRU attains RMSE 30.76, MAE 18.97, and $R^2=0.45$, with 1.12 ms CPU latency at batch=1. Relative to the best published deep baseline (TCN--Attention), it improves RMSE by 1.16\% and MAE by 4.00\%. Training curves averaged over $k=3$ runs show smooth convergence with narrow 95\% confidence bands, and ablations (GRU-only, FTT-only) support the contribution of both components. These results demonstrate that a compact Transformer-RNN hybrid delivers accurate and efficient RUL predictions on CMAPSS, making it suitable for real-time industrial prognostics.


Safe Active Navigation and Exploration for Planetary Environments Using Proprioceptive Measurements

Jiang, Matthew, Liu, Shipeng, Qian, Feifei

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Abstract--Legged robots can sense terrain through force interactions during locomotion, offering more reliable traversability estimates than remote sensing and serving as scouts for guiding wheeled rovers in challenging environments. However, even legged scouts face challenges when traversing highly deformable or unstable terrain. We present Safe Active Exploration for Granular T errain (SAEGT), a navigation framework that enables legged robots to safely explore unknown granular environments using proprioceptive sensing, particularly where visual input fails to capture terrain deformability. SAEGT estimates the safe region and frontier region online from leg-terrain interactions using Gaussian Process regression for traversability assessment, with a reactive controller for real-time safe exploration and navigation. SAEGT demonstrated its ability to safely explore and navigate toward a specified goal using only proprioceptively estimated traversability in simulation.


Towards An Adaptive Locomotion Strategy For Quadruped Rovers: Quantifying When To Slide Or Walk On Planetary Slopes

Sanchez-Delgado, Alberto, Soares, João Carlos Virgolino, Tawil, David Omar Al, Noce, Alessia Li, Villa, Matteo, Barasuol, Victor, Arena, Paolo, Semini, Claudio

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

ABSTRACT Legged rovers provide enhanced mobility compared to wheeled platforms, enabling navigation on steep and irregular planetary terrains. However, traditional legged locomotion might be energetically inefficient and potentially dangerous to the rover on loose and inclined surfaces, such as crater walls and cave slopes. This paper introduces a preliminary study that compares the Cost of Transport (CoT) of walking and torso-based sliding locomotion for quadruped robots across different slopes, friction conditions and speed levels. By identifying intersections between walking and sliding CoT curves, we aim to define threshold conditions that may trigger transitions between the two strategies. The methodology combines physics-based simulations in Isaac Sim with particle interaction validation in ANSYS-Rocky. Our results represent an initial step towards adaptive locomotion strategies for planetary legged rovers.

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  Genre: Research Report > New Finding (0.66)
  Industry: Energy (1.00)

Improving Machine Learning Based Sepsis Diagnosis Using Heart Rate Variability

Balaji, Sai, Sun, Christopher, Somalwar, Anaiy

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

The early and accurate diagnosis of sepsis is critical for enhancing patient outcomes. This study aims to use heart rate variability (HRV) features to develop an effective predictive model for sepsis detection. Critical HRV features are identified through feature engineering methods, including statistical bootstrapping and the Boruta algorithm, after which XGBoost and Random Forest classifiers are trained with differential hyperparameter settings. In addition, ensemble models are constructed to pool the prediction probabilities of high-recall and high-precision classifiers and improve model performance. Finally, a neural network model is trained on the HRV features, achieving an F1 score of 0.805, a precision of 0.851, and a recall of 0.763. The best-performing machine learning model is compared to this neural network through an interpretability analysis, where Local Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations are implemented to determine decision-making criterion based on numerical ranges and thresholds for specific features. This study not only highlights the efficacy of HRV in automated sepsis diagnosis but also increases the transparency of black box outputs, maximizing clinical applicability.


Enhancing Microgrid Performance Prediction with Attention-based Deep Learning Models

Maddineni, Vinod Kumar, Koganti, Naga Babu, Damacharla, Praveen

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

In this research, an effort is made to address microgrid systems' operational challenges, characterized by power oscillations that eventually contribute to grid instability. An integrated strategy is proposed, leveraging the strengths of convolutional and Gated Recurrent Unit (GRU) layers. This approach is aimed at effectively extracting temporal data from energy datasets to improve the precision of microgrid behavior forecasts. Additionally, an attention layer is employed to underscore significant features within the time-series data, optimizing the forecasting process. The framework is anchored by a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model, which is tasked with comprehensive load forecasting and the identification of abnormal grid behaviors. Our methodology underwent rigorous evaluation using the Micro-grid Tariff Assessment Tool dataset, with Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and the coefficient of determination (r2-score) serving as the primary metrics. The approach demonstrated exemplary performance, evidenced by a MAE of 0.39, RMSE of 0.28, and an r2-score of 98.89\% in load forecasting, along with near-perfect zero state prediction accuracy (approximately 99.9\%). Significantly outperforming conventional machine learning models such as support vector regression and random forest regression, our model's streamlined architecture is particularly suitable for real-time applications, thereby facilitating more effective and reliable microgrid management.


LSTM-CNN Network for Audio Signature Analysis in Noisy Environments

Damacharla, Praveen, Rajabalipanah, Hamid, Fakheri, Mohammad Hosein

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

There are multiple applications to automatically count people and specify their gender at work, exhibitions, malls, sales, and industrial usage. Although current speech detection methods are supposed to operate well, in most situations, in addition to genders, the number of current speakers is unknown and the classification methods are not suitable due to many possible classes. In this study, we focus on a long-short-term memory convolutional neural network (LSTM-CNN) to extract time and / or frequency-dependent features of the sound data to estimate the number / gender of simultaneous active speakers at each frame in noisy environments. Considering the maximum number of speakers as 10, we have utilized 19000 audio samples with diverse combinations of males, females, and background noise in public cities, industrial situations, malls, exhibitions, workplaces, and nature for learning purposes. This proof of concept shows promising performance with training/validation MSE values of about 0.019/0.017 in detecting count and gender.


ConeQuest: A Benchmark for Cone Segmentation on Mars

Purohit, Mirali, Adler, Jacob, Kerner, Hannah

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

Over the years, space scientists have collected terabytes of Mars data from satellites and rovers. One important set of features identified in Mars orbital images is pitted cones, which are interpreted to be mud volcanoes believed to form in regions that were once saturated in water (i.e., a lake or ocean). Identifying pitted cones globally on Mars would be of great importance, but expert geologists are unable to sort through the massive orbital image archives to identify all examples. However, this task is well suited for computer vision. Although several computer vision datasets exist for various Mars-related tasks, there is currently no open-source dataset available for cone detection/segmentation. Furthermore, previous studies trained models using data from a single region, which limits their applicability for global detection and mapping. Motivated by this, we introduce ConeQuest, the first expert-annotated public dataset to identify cones on Mars. ConeQuest consists of >13k samples from 3 different regions of Mars. We propose two benchmark tasks using ConeQuest: (i) Spatial Generalization and (ii) Cone-size Generalization. We finetune and evaluate widely-used segmentation models on both benchmark tasks. Results indicate that cone segmentation is a challenging open problem not solved by existing segmentation models, which achieve an average IoU of 52.52% and 42.55% on in-distribution data for tasks (i) and (ii), respectively. We believe this new benchmark dataset will facilitate the development of more accurate and robust models for cone segmentation. Data and code are available at https://github.com/kerner-lab/ConeQuest.


Global mapping of fragmented rocks on the Moon with a neural network: Implications for the failure mode of rocks on airless surfaces

Ruesch, O., Bickel, V. T.

arXiv.org Artificial Intelligence

It has been recently recognized that the surface of sub-km asteroids in contact with the space environment is not fine-grained regolith but consists of centimeter to meter-scale rocks. Here we aim to understand how the rocky morphology of minor bodies react to the well known space erosion agents on the Moon. We deploy a neural network and map a total of ~130,000 fragmented boulders scattered across the lunar surface and visually identify a dozen different desintegration morphologies corresponding to different failure modes. We find that several fragmented boulder morphologies are equivalent to morphologies observed on asteroid Bennu, suggesting that these morphologies on the Moon and on asteroids are likely not diagnostic of their formation mechanism. Our findings suggest that the boulder fragmentation process is characterized by an internal weakening period with limited morphological signs of damage at rock scale until a sudden highly efficient impact shattering event occurs. In addition, we identify new morphologies such as breccia boulders with an advection-like erosion style. We publicly release the produced fractured boulder catalog along with this paper.